'Chindia'

"if China and India collaborated”

A high-school economist’s take on a  hypothetical collaboration between two superpowers of the world.

 

Overview

 

Currently, The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is known throughout the globe as the world's strongest and most powerful alliance. Formed in 1949, it is an alliance of 30 countries from North America and Europe, intending to safeguard ‘the Allies’ freedom and security through political and military means’ (“About NATO”). But could this all change if China and India were to form an alliance of their own?

 

Overall, there are 2 sides to this coin. Firstly, the highly advantageous monetary and military aspects, including the overall benefit to both countries' economic status. Secondly,  the less considered negative humanitarian repercussions for the general population of the 2 nations.

 

Monetary Impacts

 

China and India are notorious for being the two most populated countries in the world, having a combined population of over 2.8 billion. Comparatively, all member Nato states combine a population of around 950 million. This alone sets the bar high for the expectations of this Chindia collaboration having nearly triple the population of the current strongest alliance. On top of this, China already has the second-biggest economy worldwide, with India close behind at 6th. Though the United States is at the top of the consumption food chain at a market size of a tremendous $20.89 trillion, the compounded Gross Domestic Product of China and India come quite close with $17.38 trillion. The combination of the two economies will likely result in a rise in GDP for both countries, taking it closer to that of the economic superpower, the US.

 

Not only will the economies combine, but a trading bloc is likely to form between the two. Throughout the past year, India has had ongoing efforts on trying to reduce consumption of China’s imports, however ‘the country's bilateral trade with China has grown 44 per cent in 2021, according to Chinese government data for the full calendar year’. The impact of this on India’s current account position in the balance of trade could be detrimental, as prior to 2001 China restricted imports through high tariffs and other protectionist measures. However, with the help of this trading bloc, access to raw materials could be both cheaper and easier to access for India, helping them to further increase their output, and become more competitive in the international markets.

 

Moreover, supply chains may be positively helped as China and India’s individual assets benefit each other, helping them both to grow. Currently, China has quite good supply chains and infrastructure, however India seems to be lacking in this aspect. Establishing a supply chain to compete with developed nations could be highly beneficial to increase competition and meet high standards of international markets, and could even benefit China itself. If these nations were to collaborate, due to China’s strength in infrastructure and India’s English speaking, service oriented workforce, both countries could ‘swap’ these factors of production, helping improve manufacturing altogether. For example, China, using its own resources and skills, could redirect some of its excess foreign direct investment (FDI) to India, helping to improve the infrastructure there, which inturn may allow India to export to China for cheaper costs due to improved factories and ports, decreasing supply chain issues. Furthermore, as China is one of the highest receivers of FDI, India could benefit from this extra wealth, and overall could help reduce congested port problems, allowing both China and India to benefit from the increase in capital productivity and intensive, increasing output.

 

Finally, the agricultural economy of India - now making a gradual shift into manufacturing - combined with one entirely manufacturing economy could have great effects on the overall productivity and efficiency of the economy. As they combine, the Chinese economy may influence India’s in a way that turns it into a fully manufacturing economy as well, helping it grow much faster than it would have on its own. 

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Military Impacts

 

Additionally, military strength is another factor that will change monumentally. According to Global Firepower, China’s military as of now sits 3rd with a ranking of 0.0511 on the military power rating index, with India 4th at 0.0979. NATO comes together with the ability to count on nearly 3.5-million personnel, which would draw with the foreshadowed “Chindia” military as China’s force emerges at over 2 million, and India’s at 1.4 million. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Indian Armed Forces (IAF) combine, the advantages for these 2 nations are endless. 

 

The People’s Republic of China ‘has developed and possesses weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and nuclear weapons’ (Wikipedia Contributors). They also have one of the fastest modernising militaries in the world, and are seen as a ‘potential military superpower’. Furthermore. The MoD (Ministry of Defence of the Government of India) has the third-largest defence budget in the world and is also undergoing modernisation with new futuristic systems being put in place. 

 

Not only will the military grow exponentially, but many of the military forces that are currently being “wasted” in constant conflict at the China-India border would instead be used more efficiently as China and India enter a partnership to support each other.  The Sino-Indian border dispute is an ‘ongoing territorial dispute over the sovereignty of two relatively large, and several smaller, separated pieces of territory between China and India’ (Deutsche Welle). In June 2020 alone the clash between the troops left at least 20 Indian troops dead. Through the partnership, many lives could be saved and could help ease the tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

 

The increased strength of the combined army could help the Asian and other less developed countries fight back against the western hegemony to avoid being dominated and restricted. Though this could help reduce inequality, it may also result in retaliation from NATO and might result in less favourable outcomes. Also, as “Chindia’s” armed forces dominate the world, it could be destructive for other nations if they become too powerful and gain monopolistic control.

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Politics & Humanitarian Grounds

 

Nevertheless, there is another side to this argument as this association may be very adverse for the general population. China presently operates as an Authoritarian state, meaning there are no freely elected national leaders as political opposition is suppressed. This contrasts highly with India’s democratic set-up where the electors consist of all elected Members of Legislative Assemblies and Members of Parliament. Due to China’s political power, the Indian government may be overruled, leading to liberal rights being curbed as ‘Chindia’ forms into one authoritarian political system. This may result in an overarching right-wing agenda, which may challenge the fundamental rights of the citizens, and reduce living standards, taking a strong hit to the usual democracy. 

 

In addition, The manufacturing-focused economy may cause the labour force and citizens to become more work-oriented, possibly leading to an increase in working hours, and a decrease in leisure time, impacting quality of life. Furthermore, this may lead to the economy straying away from a more service-based economy, where a higher proportion of labour would work in the tertiary sector. Though this is not the case all of the time, often wages are higher in the tertiary sector, meaning this may lead to lower standards of living as wages decrease, resulting in a fall in purchasing power.

 

On the other hand, the “ill effects” of democracy on China may also be a turning point in the way the nation operates. India’s democratic state may deeply influence China’s autocratic one, leading to a rise in freedom. Though this may be good for the citizens, it could lead to inefficiency and corruption, as the citizens start to argue for their rights due to exposure to a new perspective. Moreover,  further racial tension may be triggered, which could affect the production capacity of the economy as labour productivity falls.

 

Cultural Cooperation

 

Though from an outside eye they seem to be similar in many aspects, society and culture are the 2 main differentiating features between these superpowers. One major problem is the religion and race differences. ‘At the societal level, there is racism towards India’ as they are ‘considered dirty, inefficient, and Indians are consistently placed on the bottom when it comes to racial rankings or surveys’ (“India and China Differences Run Deep”). These views are not only seen in China, but are shared worldwide, with a common distaste towards the Indian race. Indians, too, share feelings of racism towards the Chinese, as both nations are highly uninformed about each other’s countries, producing a huge knowledge gap in what they both know about each other. 

 

Furthermore, India is considered to be more modernised and ‘contemporary’, whereas China still shares views about royalty and ‘provide a certain degree of legitimacy to their rulers’ (“India and China Differences Run Deep”). These clashing views may prove difficult to overcome if ever “Chindia” were truly to exist, with them constantly being on opposite sides of the equation.,

 

Climate Change and Global Emissions

 

India and China are unquestionably both 2 of the largest influences on global warming, with ‘China responsible for 28 percent of carbon emissions and India 7 per cent, ranking them first and third in the world’ (Limb, 2021). Through the hypothetical cooperation of these 2 major emitters, and the growth of the manufacturing sector, it is plausible to assume and expect this emission to only rise in the future. The social costs of this decision are highly potent as with the current rate of global warming, the planet will not be able to survive. This impact on climate change would be extremely risky, likely leading to a shorter lifespan of the planet as 2 out of the top 3 emitters grow unpredictably larger.

 

However, many also believe that it is unjust to blame the climate crisis on these 2 nations, as over time other countries have collectively released considerably more tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. One example of this is the UK, who have been said to have a cumulative historic emissions per capita of nearly 5.5 times that of China, and 20 times that of India. Though these nations in total release more CO2, due to their sheer size, they may not actually be the countries that the world must pay attention to.

 

Furthermore, combined efforts from India and China may instead be more beneficial to the Earth than harmful, as though they’re usually on opposite sides of the spectrum, when it comes to global warming they have the same outlook on tackling the climate crisis. 

 

Conclusion

 

In conclusion, a collaboration between China and India would come with both its benefits and drawbacks, supporting and harming countries around the world. Though in theory, it seems to benefit these 2 large nations, it is unlikely to occur, especially in this day and age. Not only would the west be highly against it and attempt to halt the process by instigating conflict, but also by virtue of the contrasting political and economical interests of the countries, China and India are unlikely to happily enter into a partnership anytime soon. Ultimately, due to the power gap between the two countries, the asymmetry is likely to cause unnecessary friction, forcing a hostile scenario and establishing a dysfunctional society.